Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
