Daily Killings in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The average figure of everyday homicides per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new administrative figures. But, public safety specialists have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate improved national stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Figures

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen over these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Greater collaboration between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to properly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it could obscure periods when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.