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Only two days before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.