Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”