Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.