War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".