Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the EPL this campaign is the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way sides are netting increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.
Looking at scoring methods to matchday 11 last season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 less altogether.
Considering the bigger picture, shot attempts teams are taking show a remarkable 370 fewer in open-play than at this stage last time out.
Even with the significant rise in set-piece goals, we've actually seen only two additional shots generated from them excluding spot-kicks, demonstrating how effective clubs are at finding ways to convert from dead-ball situations.
Goal Averages Reveal the Tale
301 total goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures so far works out at 2.74 goals each match, if this persists for all 38 games might be the least for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).
Yet merely 196 goals scored in open-play translates to 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the smallest for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season also marks the only Premier League season to experience goals scored more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).
Which Teams Account for This Change?
When it comes to scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded by far the biggest drop, registering a mere four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in goals from open play is largely a London thing, with five out of the London's seven clubs recording five or more fewer goals from open-play than the prior season.
In fairness, that's largely down to them scoring numerous scores at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than them having difficulty to convert in open play this campaign.
Conversely Man City have experienced the largest rise, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored so far originating in open-play.
Set-Piece Success
Looking at newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off champions the Black Cats have recorded three extra scores in open-play than Southampton did in their first 11 games on their way to the drop last season.
In terms of goals scored from dead-ball situations (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the biggest increase, with the two clubs compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.
Manchester United have netted twice as many goals from set-plays as they did in the first 11 matches last season ahead of the manager took over, while Sunderland additionally prove more effective at converting than the club they replaced they superseded.
Man City seem unaware of the memo about increasing scoring from set-pieces, since they've recorded a reduction of three than last season, as have Forest, even if this could be because of the change in style they have tried to implement.
General Tendencies
Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – are this term's primary examples by netting less scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while City stand as the unique club to buck the trend to date by achieving the exact opposite.
It will be interesting to watch if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they find again their all-round creativity and begin scoring more goals in open play as well.
